"In the case of Mar (Roxas) and Jojo (Binay), they need to watch out for ARMM because it's still around a million votes," Ateneo College of Law dean Antonio La Vina told ANC on Tuesday.
Binay and Roxas have been in a tight battle for the second highest position as initial Commission on Elections (Comelec) results showed that Binay leads the race with 39.51% of votes while Roxas closely follows with 36.84%.
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As of 6:15 a.m., 78.55% of around 30 million total votes have already been transmitted to the election commission after the voting period ended at 7 p.m. on Monday.
Binay is ahead with 12 million votes while Roxas closely follows with 11.2 million.
Roughly 8 more million votes are anticipated to come in today, according to polling firm Pulse Asia chief Ronnie Holmes.
"The number is enough to change the situation in the races, especially in the Vice-Presidential race," Holmes told Ricky Carandang and Karen Davila in ANC's Halalan 2010 coverage.
The number, however, would not bear much impact on the Presidential race as Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno Aquino III is already far ahead with 40.19% or 12.2 million.
Former President Joseph Estrada only gathered 25.46% of the votes or around 7.7 million.
"We're more or less sure about the Presidential candidate, it's really the VP candidates that are neck and neck," Newsbreak chief editor Marites Vitug said.
Waiting for ARMM
Antonio La Viña noted that the Autonomous Regions of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is an area to watch out for as it will help define the race between the two top VPs.
Less than 50% of the votes from ARMM has been transmitted early today, according to Comelec reports. The rest are anticipated to arrive before Comelec releases the winners on Tuesday noon.
La Viña explained that it is hard to project who will lead in the other regions since results are transmitted directly from precincts and not collectively from one province.
With the new automated system, electoral results are directly transmitted to the main office regardless of the other precincts.
"I was surprised with the Vice-Presidential results. It was only last week when Binay moved up the rankings," La Viña said.
'Roxas became complacent'
Dubbed as the dark horse of the 2010 elections, Binay's vice-presidential race was met with raised eyebrows. Binay has been severely criticized for comparing himself to President Barack Obama and for associating himself with late former Pres. Corazon Aquino after the latter's death in August 2009.
Binay rose to the top rankings two weeks before the elections when he overtook consistent second-placer Sen. Loren Legarda by 8%, effectively occupying the second slot in the then Roxas-dominated field.
A week before the elections, a Pulse Asia survey result showed Roxas and Binay are statistically tied with 37%.
According to Vitug, the sudden rise in Binay's race was a conglomeration of various reasons. She pointed out 2 possibilities: 1) Roxas became complacent and 2) Binay had a good electoral strategy.
"Mar became complacent because he got 50% of the voters' preferences. Binay, on the other hand, employed a good strategy with local government offices," she said.
A three-time local chief of Makati City, Binay's rags to riches story endeared him to the voting public, Vitug added.
Holmes also added that Sen. Francis "Chiz" Escudero's endorsement made a big impact on Binay's rise.
"It was a late surge but 2 weeks before the elections, you have Binay going up-moved up in areas where Chiz's endorsement have bearing," Holmes explained.
Other VPs should concede
Except for Roxas, La Vina said the rest of the vice presidential candidates should swallow their prides and concede in the vice-presidential race.
"There should be a concession. I hope eveyone else goes out there with dignity and concede," La Vina said.
La Vina pointed out that Filipino candidates usually cry cheating when they lose the race. Instead of doing so, the candidates should change the political culture and accept their defeats gracefully.
In the history of Philippine elections, only former Pres. Elpidio Quirino conceded after being trumped by Pres. Ramon Magsaysay in the 1953 elections.
"Everyone always say dinaya sila. The political culture will change if people start conceding. The operators are there because people don't concede," La Vina said.
Updated as of 05/11/2010 1:40 PM
-abs-cbnNEWS.com
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