- read full story -
Ramon Casiple, executive director of Institute for Political and Economic Reform (Iper), said in a text message that the latest Pulse Asia survey showing Aquino with a 19-percent point margin over his closest rival, Senator Manny Villar of Nacionalista Party (NP) is a potent indication.
"It's already a landslide and breaking the 15-percent margin for me is one," he said.
Aquino consistently leads pre-election surveys in the 10-man presidential derby, the latest of which is the 39-percent voter preference against the 20 percent of Villar and Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) standard bearer former president Joseph Estrada.
Estrada won as president in 1998 via landslide with a winning margin of at least six million votes over then administration candidate Jose de Venecia Jr.
Using the 2004 presidential election turnout of 77 percent as guide, Aquino would have garnered 15.2 million of the 39 million votes cast, while Villar and Estrada will get 7.8 million votes each, for a winning margin of 7.4 million.
Data from the Commission on Elections (Comelec) said there are 50.7 million registered voters.
Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia chief research fellow, however, believed otherwise.
She said a probable landslide win for Aquino would not be the theme yet, citing factors that could trigger a change of tide.
"For one, there are still 10 days to go in the campaign period. We have seen surges in voter preference a week or two weeks before election day (e.g. Antonio Trillanes win in 2007 as senator, Pia Cayetano as senator in 2004 and a possible surge in voter preference for the late Fernando Poe Jr. in the last week of 2004 presidential campaign)," Tabunda told Sun.Star.
She added that the impact of the first automated election system on voter turnout remains to be seen.
According to Casiple, Villar's ratings failed to recover as the people still reeled from the various allegations posed against him.
"Villaroyo is still alive with voters," he said, referring to rumors that Villar was the secret candidate of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
Estrada ties with Villar
Since February, Villar has already suffered a nine-point drop in his survey ratings, while Estrada picked up two points during the same period.
In fourth place is Lakas-Kampi-CMD candidate Gilberto Teodoro. His ranking remained unchanged at seven percent, while Bangon Pilipinas bet Bro. Eddie Villanueva inched up a bit to three percent from two percent in March.
Bagumbayan standard bearer Richard Gordon, who sought the court's intervention to stop the publication of surveys recently, was stuck at two percent, while disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL) candidate Vetallano Acosta garnered one percent from 0.08 percent previously.
The numbers of the rest of the candidates were unchanged from March levels, namely: Pangmasa bet Nicanor Perlas (0.3 percent), Ang Kapatiran standard bearer John Carlos "JC" De los Reyes (0.2 percent), and independent candidate Senator Jamby Madrigal (0.1 percent).
Meanwhile, about 10 percent remained undecided as to their presidential preference, higher than the six percent than the previous polling.
Sought for comment, Estrada said the remaining days of the campaign will be crucial to his Palace rerun as he welcomed the improvement of his survey ratings in Pulse Asia.
"This is obviously good news in terms of ranking although we still need to catch up with Noynoy (Aquino) in terms of percentages," Estrada's spokesperson, Margaux Salcedo, said in a text message to reporters.
"But it's a good feeling to hit number two and this is a good time to be there. The next 10 days are critical," she added.
Salcedo attributed the two-point uptick in Estrada's rating from his "pro-poor" agenda while silently taking a dig on Villar.
"This reflects that the people are now seeing beyond the campaign propaganda of other camps and discerning who truly the opposition is and who is truly pro-poor. And that is Erap," she said.
Salcedo, meanwhile, scored the LP for its promise of change, saying it has no competent leader.
"In the next few days we hope to establish that the 'change' that the Liberal Party proposes is empty without a leader with proven competence, political will and commitment to the masses," she said.
Both the LP and NP camps have yet to issue a statement on the latest survey results.
Binay catches up
In the vice presidential race, Estrada's running mate Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay reaped the gains of the endorsement of Senator Francis "Chiz" Escudero to nose out Senator Loren Legarda in second place.
Binay scored a nine-point jump to settle at 28 percent, while Legarda lost three percentage points to register a 20-percent voter preference.
Despite a six-point slide, LP bet Senator Mar Roxas still commands 37 percent.
Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) spokesman and Valenzuela Representative Rex Gatchalian said Legarda will stage a comeback very soon, pointing that the survey did not capture the true scenario on the ground.
"Everywhere, the groundswell of support for Senator Legarda from political leaders and voters is overwhelming. In the remaining days of the campaign period, our strategy will remain consistent, focus on getting Senator Legarda's message across to as many voters as possible," he said.
Ratings of the other vice presidential bets, meanwhile, hardly changed from the previous survey, which hovered at less than five percent.
Bagumbayan's Bayani Fernando and administration bet Eduardo "Edu" Manzano were tied at three percent, while Bangon Pilipinas' Perfecto Yasay remained unchanged at one percent.
KBL's Jay Sonza dropped to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent, while Ang Kapatiran's Dominador "Jun" Chipeco shed 0.05 point to register 0.5 percent.
The face-to-face survey had a sample of 1,800 registered voters with margin of error of plus-minus two percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
(Virgil Lopez/Sunnex)
Sunstar
No comments:
Post a Comment